Dan Kantrovitz – Cubs VP of Scouting

By Todd Johnson and Greg Zumach

When it comes to storylines for the 2024 draft, the biggest question was answered a couple weeks ago when the Cubs moved up two spots to the number 14 pick. They are going to get a very good player there and we will detail all of that over the next seven months. Today there are things to think about when it comes to the draft and what storylines we might be following over the course of 2024.

Most teams tend to say that they don’t draft guys for need. While that may be true at the top of the draft, the Cubs have been known to load up on pitching because they need pitching. Last year saw a pretty even mix when it came to pitcher versus hitters. They went a little more hitting in the top 10 and tended to go with some inning eaters in the second 10.

With the Cubs having four picks in the top 100 this year, they should get a lot of good players. If they sign a free agent who was given a qualifying offer not named Cody Bellinger, the Cubs will forfeit their second round pick. But if Bellinger signs with another team, then the Cubs are going to get a pick between the second and third round.

2024 Draft Musings

The Draft Lottery didn’t provide a massive boost to the Cubs’ 2024 first round pick, but it still resulted in the club moving up from a 17th overall selection to the 14th. The biggest storyline was the Ohio expedition to the top of the draft with both the Guardians (1.1) and Reds (1.2) moving to the top of the draft. Both clubs are contention-worthy clubs next year and could serve as a proof of concept for what a a contending club could do with a top overall selection. We saw the Rangers target the top college hitter on the board last year. He’s now on track to make his MLB debut this season.

As we evaluate the draft as it stands in December, the current viewpoint is that it’s relatively deep in college talent, especially hitters. It won’t be as strong as the 2023 class, but last year’s draft was a by-product of a good high school group combined with an overflowing college talent pool due to the shortened 2020 draft. Compared to most years the 2024 college group is solid. Names like Mike Sirota, Braden Montgomery, and Seaver King all line up well entering the college season and fit similar traits to those in previous Cubs high draft picks. And if Florida State’s Cam Smith continues to keep his chase rate low like he did at the Cape Cod League this summer, he’d fit in nicely.

How Will the Cubs Roll?

One factor that could influence the direction the Cubs go in the draft depends upon what players they end up trading away this winter. The top of the draft is always going to be the best player available. Always. But once you start getting into the back end of day two, and then all of day three, the Cubs could add to a few areas they are lacking. That could be starting pitching, it could be left-handed pitchers, or it could be catching. It’ll be interesting to find out what mix of guys the Cubs are going to take next year.

Where the Cubs Pick

There is still a lot of baseball left to be played before the draft. It’s a little hard to pigeonhole the strength of this draft where the Cubs pick at 14. The top hitters will likely go in the first 10 and the Cubs should have a very good chance at getting one of the top pitchers in the draft. That could be a prep arm or it could be a college pitcher.

Where Will They Go Once Signed?

Last year was strange to see several draft picks play at Myrtle Beach and beyond, and we still have yet to see a lot of players debut and that could impact the system as well if some don’t return from injury. 

That leads into the storyline of how many guys the Cubs select next summer end up playing in Arizona, Myrtle Beach, or South Bend. At this time, we are not really concerned about the mix of prep players versus college players when it comes to the draft. Kantrovitz is still pretty even-handed and that does not really matter at this point. The prep guys usually usually take a little bit longer to develop. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a prep guy move two or three levels in a year. It’s not uncommon for college players to do it, but it’s extremely rare to see someone drafted out of high school skyrocket through the system. PCA is the exception rather than the norm.

When Will the Draft Take Place?

Another storyline is just exactly when the draft is going to be held. Over the past few years it’s been the same time as the All-Star break, but many executives have been raising a stink trying to get it moved up a little earlier so that they can be better prepared for the trade deadline. It’s a matter of moving resources around to scout everybody that needs to be scouted both on the amateur side and on the professional side.

Redrafting

Redrafting was a strategy for Jason McLeod. For Dan Kantrovitz, he has not re-drafted one player. Then again, this will be his first draft he can retake someone he’s taken before. Pitchers Daniel Avitia of Grand Canyon and Gage Ziehl of The U were both taken in the 2021 Draft by Kantrovitz. They have both been impressive in their two seasons in college. Small problem…they are both slated to go in the late first round or comp round A. The Cubs would be lucky to snag one of those two arms. In addition, another guy the Cubs could pick is Teo Banks of Tulane. The young OF hit 18 homers and drove in 51 for the Green Wave last year in 61 games. His .979 OPS was just outstanding for a sophomore.

Both Greg and Todd will be chiming in with mock drafts and video from time-to-time about the draft. We usually start to warm up in mid to late March. However, I am sure Mr. Zumach will not wait that long to drop some rankings and a mock draft.