The time has come. You’ve sorted through each of our prospect lists this week, noted our tendencies, picked your favorites, and reached the end (sort of). Today, we pool together the lists from both Gregs, Todd, and Rich to create the final boss: our cumulative rankings leading into the 2024 campaign.
In case you need a reminder of what our individual lists look like, you can find Greg Huss’ list here, Rich Biesterfeld’s list here, Todd Johnson’s list here, and Greg Zumach’s list here!
How are these calculated? Simple. We used a point system where the top ranked prospect on each of our lists received 40 points from each of us while the 40th ranked player on each of our lists received 1 point. The output is 40 prospects, ranked based on the total points they received from the NSB trio, and an additional 14 honorable mentions! Enjoy all 40 players, including the highest spot they were ranked among our four individual lists, the lowest they were ranked, and a quote from one of us!
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong
High: 1 | Low: 1
“His floor as an elite defender in centerfield with pop and speed means he provides real MLB value while his offensive game improves.” —Greg Z
2. Cade Horton
High: 1 | Low: 2
“The fact that he’s had this much success (and is still fairly new to being a full-time pitcher) is just flat out amazing.” —Todd
3. Kevin Alcántara
High: 3 | Low: 5
“He is an uber freaky player. The key going forward is him making adjustments and rising to the occasion and challenge. He has the skills to adapt.” —Todd
4. Matt Shaw
High: 3 | Low: 6
“Shaw has the highest floor of any hitter in the Cubs system right now.” —Todd
5. Owen Caissie
High: 4 | Low: 5
“Like it or not, exit velo is the single best indicator of future power production at the Major League level. Caissie’s rates from the 2023 minor league campaign would rank among the best in all of MAJOR League Baseball.” —Greg H
6. Jordan Wicks
High: 6 | Low: 8
“Wicks is set to be the 4th/5th starter out of the gate this year but will need to continue to refine his arsenal and lean into game-planning. If Wicks adds more swing and miss to his arsenal he could become a mid-rotation arm in short-order.” —Greg Z
7. Jefferson Rojas
High: 5 | Low: 11
“There are big believers in Rojas both inside and outside the organization” —Greg Z
8. Moises Ballesteros
High: 6 | Low: 11
“Mo Baller has the best combination of hitting skills in the entire system.” —Greg H
9. Ben Brown
High: 7 | Low: 9
“He tends to get lost in the shuffle, but a full spring to prep and early success at AAA could have him in the major leagues soon.” —Greg Z
10. Jackson Ferris
High: 8 | Low: 13
“He’s throwing three 20s with a fastball touching 20 inches of carry, a slider touching 20 inches of sweep, and a curveball with 20 inches of depth. It’s nasty stuff.” —Greg Z
11. Alexander Canario
High: 10 | Low: 12
“The pop is still no joke post-surgeries and I think he can at least be as good as Seiya Suzuki defensively while holding down back-up CF duties for the next couple seasons.” —Greg H
12. James Triantos
High: 9 | Low: 15
“Next season we can hope to see additional in-game power as Triantos incorporates more selective aggression. He’s another potential breakout performer in 2024.” —Greg Z
13. Matt Mervis
High: 14 | Low: 21
“The building blocks are still there to adjust (especially to upper-level breaking balls). He has the upside of being a quality, everyday first baseman.” —Greg Z
14. Luke Little
High: 12 | Low: 24
“The sweeper generated the 6th highest whiff% in Triple-A last year (56%) among 2,961 different pitch types and when it was put in play for some odd reason, he gave up just a .043 wOBA which was good for 2nd in the same sample size.” —Greg H
T-15. Luis Vázquez
High: 11 | Low: 19
“I wonder how much third base he will play in spring training? He’s got the size and the pop in the bat to play at that position now.” —Todd
T-15. Drew Gray
High: 15 | Low: 17
“Cubs officials were very high on Gray prior to his surgery (and likely still are). I know I am.” —Greg Z
17. Michael Arias
High: 13 | Low: 19
“Dude just oozes talent. I wonder if he’s added some good weight this offseason? Most likely a reliever unless he adds some good muscle to his frame.” —Todd
18. BJ Murray Jr
High: 14 | Low: 25
“He showed more power, demonstrates a balanced attack at the plate, and plays multiple positions.” —Greg Z
19. Pedro Ramirez
High: 19 | Low: 24
“I know the body doesn’t shout that of projection but Pedro deserves a Top 25 slot as long as he continues to produce at the dish.” —Greg H
20. Pablo Aliendo
High: 20 | Low: 26
“Aliendo has put himself squarely in the realm of being a MLB catcher in 2025, but will need to address swing and miss.” —Greg Z
21. Kohl Franklin
High: 15 | Low: 27
“The changeup is still great, the breaking balls are sorting themselves out, and the fastball does enough to make sure the other offerings play.” —Greg H
22. Zyhir Hope
High: 13 | Low: 34
“His power/speed combination paired with incredible athleticism and a sweet swing is enough to become obsessed with a player.” —Greg H
23. Porter Hodge
High: 17 | Low: 33
“Hodge has had an up and down 2023, but he’s still showing flashes of some really quality pitches (unique ones as well according to Baseball America).” —Greg Z
24. Christian Franklin
High: 20 | Low: 30
“His power-speed combination is enthralling, not to mention the defense he can play in the outfield.” —Greg H
25. Brody McCullough
High: 23 | Low: 26
“Brody is one of the best in the system at finding the edges of the strike zone with multiple pitch types, each of which play up because of a combination of VAA and spin rates.” —Greg H
26. Jaxon Wiggins
High: 16 | Low: Outside Top 40
“Huge stuff, significant command issues, possible enormous riser.” —Greg Z
27. Haydn McGeary
High: 20 | Low: 32
“McGeary likely won’t ever make a Top 100 list since it’s so rare for these older DH-likely profiles to do so, but he’s hitting his way up the ladder.” —Greg Z
28. Brandon Birdsell
High: 16 | Low: 34
“Simply put: Brandon Birdsell knows how to pitch.” —Greg H
T-29. Will Sanders
High: 26 | Low: 32
“Ultimately his arsenal needs fine-tuning, but this is a classic case where minor changes in a pitch lab and a healthy season make this feel like a steal.” —Greg Z
T-29. Josh Rivera
High: 21 | Low: Outside Top 40
“I feel perfectly comfortable thinking of him as a shortstop, second baseman, or third baseman long-term.” —Greg H
31. Alexis Hernández
High: 25 | Low: Outside Top 40
“He’s a good shortstop, can hit nukes, and is still just 18 years old.” —Greg H
32. Christopher Paciolla
High: 28 | Low: Outside Top 40
“He’s hit the gym to get stronger, become more athletic, and put himself in a good position to debut as a 20 year old in Myrtle Beach next year.” —Greg H
33. Brennen Davis
High: 28 | Low: Outside Top 40
“Injuries have clouded our projection of Brennen Davis, but he still has the makeup and ability to force his way to the major leagues.” —Greg Z
34. Luis Rujano
High: 32 | Low: Outside Top 40
“The big righty has the body of a starter, the pitch mix of a starter, and gave up two runs or fewer in 17 of his 19 outings in 2023.” —Greg H
35. Cristian Hernández
High: 30 | Low: Outside Top 40
“It’s not always going to look pretty as adjustments happen behind the scenes. He’s showing more patience and that will be vital for him as he advances through the system.” —Greg Z
T-36. Zac Leigh
High: 22 | Low: Outside Top 40
“Despite battling inconsistent usage due to injuries over the past couple years, he still has arguably the best pure stuff in the org.” —Greg H
T-36. Bailey Horn
High: 27 | Low: Outside Top 40
“Lefties with good carry fastballs have value, even if just out of the pen.” —Greg Z
T-38. Derniche Valdez
High: 24 | Low: Outside Top 40
“This is easily my biggest shot in the dark. Could be top 10 a year from now.” —Todd
T-38. Brian Kalmer
High: 33 | Low: Outside Top 40
“He could be one of the biggest risers this spring if the power plays at High-A.” —Todd
40. Nazier Mulé
High: 28 | Low: Outside Top 40
“His development path over the next two years will be extremely intriguing to watch. How much will he play SS and how much will he pitch? Still, he is an exceptional athlete, hence the ranking.” —Todd
Others receiving Top 40 votes: Alfonsin Rosario, Rafael Morel, Koen Moreno, Jonathon Long, Caleb Kilian, Mason McGwire, Walker Powell, Kevin Valdez, Michael Carico, Frankie Scalzo Jr, Angel Cepeda, Cole Roederer, Christian Olivo, Luis Devers
(Please remove this if it’s obnoxiously long) My list would be:
====Top 20-30 Caliber Prospects====
Cade Horton
PCA
====Top 50 Caliber====
Matt Shaw
Caissie
Alcantara
====Top 100 (as far as quality)====
Moises Ballesteros
Jefferson Rojas
James Triantos
Jordan Wicks
Ben Brown
Canario
====Crazy talented arms that you’re hopeful will be future SP’s====
Jackson Ferris
Drew Gray
Jaxson Wiggins
====Toolsy youngsters that may explode onto the scene====
Derniche Valdez
Fernando Cruz
====Crazy talented arm that has higher % to be a RP====
Michael Arias
====Youngsters with upside to crack the Top 100 or (hopeful) future MLB contributors====
Pedro Ramirez
Haydn McGeary
Zyhir Hope
Matt Mervis
Luke Little
Luis Vazquez
BJ Murray
Josh Rivera
====Talented pitchers where it’s make or break time====
Porter Hodge
Kohl Franklin
====The under the radar breakout candidate pitchers====
Brody McCullough
Will Sanders
===Possible future big leaguers but K’s or Age are the concerns===
Pablo Aliendo
Christian Franklin
====Under the radar youngsters to keep an eye on====
Angel Cepeda
Alexis Hernandez
====Are these dudes for real or just succeeding against younger competition====
Brandon Birdsell
Brian Kalmer
Jonathon Long
====Please be an MLB quality reliever because he’s a lefty====
Bailey Horn
====Deep cut pitchers to keep an eye on====
Luis Rujano
Nazier Mule
====Last Chance U + other intriguing names to watch====
Cristian Hernandez
Rafael Morel
Ezequiel Pagan
Caleb Kilian
Brennen Davis
Luis Devers
Michael Carico
Ed Howard
Felix Stevens
Mason McGwire
Christopher Paciolla
Et al
Holy cow this is terrific. I think I have literally zero Major arguments against it. A few names here or there I’d switch around, but at that point it’s so minor. Really dig how you categorized everyone, it’s important for framing how we should view guys going into 2024.
I probably should have put Cristian Hernandez, Paciolla and Pagan into their own tier before the last one, but I appreciate it. Between NSB, your On Deck Pod and Bryan Smith, Cub fans are way more informed about prospects due to all the info, stats and clips you guys provide. We’re a long ways away from a younger me thinking Hak Ju Lee could possibly be a starting MLB SS lol.
Appreciate the kind words! But hey, Hal Ju Lee still has a chance to make an impact behind Tyler Skulina and Trey Masek!
Much appreciated! Some hot takes:
– I suppose the ankle injury made it easier than ever but another year, another Richard Gallardo snub! Zac Leigh making the consensus and Gallardo getting 50th on one list is something, eh? Gallardo probably threw as hard as any SP in the org this year with improved shapes, was cruising towards another 120+ IP season, and ultimately it’s “only” an ankle injury from a trip so we’re not exactly talking long term issues here. Ftr I’ve still got him as the highest ceiling of the arms.
– So if Gallardo isn’t even a mention on lists 40+ deep for years and years now because of numbers, what’s the case for this ultra loyalty to Kohl Franklin? I wouldn’t even deny that being healthy with improved overall velo, stuff, strength, conditioning etc. makes him a more serious prospect than you’d think looking at his numbers, but also
– Nice that BJ Murray’s ranking was corrected, slightly as he easily could be another 10+ spots higher, after only Todd had him inside the top 20. I don’t get it guys, really don’t. Brody McCullough? Kohl Franklin? Is there even a rhyme or reason?
– What are we not liking about Jordan Wicks that he made zero top 5s? I’ve got him #1 this year for the healthy, variety, command, control, some other interesting performance stuff, and still some growth potential
– I have to say I’m impressed with the sticktuitiveness when it comes to Kevin Alcantara. Owen Caissie spent his entire age 20 in AA and had a strong, if not perfect, season. Alcantara struggled to hit hit in High A.
– I saw someone mention it but the dearth of Derniche Valdez is pretty weird, glad he was able to sneak onto the consensus. In general I don’t get why he and Gallardo struggle to connect immediately: both were right with Cristian Hernandez in Pipeline’s initial rankings for their IFA class (5, 6, 6 IIRC), and hilariously the only one to get any play immediately has been the worst performer with the shortest amateur track record (granted bc of a global pandemic). Valdez came in and showed perhaps the most complete offensive approach and easily the most power a 17 YO in the DSL has shown with this org pretty much ever
–
Hey, Jeff! Appreciate the comment! I’ll do my best to address your comments, while keeping in mind that I’m not really arguing against you — prospect rankings are the single most subjective thing you can find in the baseball world.
Gallardo: Full disclosure, I have Gallardo ranked as the 63rd best prospect in the Cubs system, having risen up my rankings thanks to his performance last year. I’m not concerned about the ankle injury in terms of his development. While he has continued to put together good results, I’m not sure I see the same improved fastball shape that you see and I know he definitely does not throw as hard as any other SP in the organization. I can definitely see why someone would look at Kohl’s numbers and look at Richard’s numbers and be confused about the ranking.
BJ Murray Jr: I broke down my thoughts on BJ on my individual list as best I could, but basically it comes down to the importance of continuing to develop serious pop. I’m uncertain he can do that but if he can, that drastically changes my ranking for him.
Jordan Wicks: Love Wicksy and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him throw for several years in the Cubs rotation. If you think a #4 in the rotation for 8 years is the number one prospect in the org, then I wouldn’t argue against it!
Kevin Alcántara: Definitely did not struggle to hit last year. His stats outside the first 3 weeks or so were very good and his overall numbers ended up being better than league-average. Owen vs Kevin is basically a wash for me. Caissie’s season was wildly impressive, but I’m hedging my bets just a bit by ranking the better defender and base runner ahead.
Derniche Valdez: I think a few of us didn’t consider Derniche in our rankings. In my eyes, DSL stats mean essentially nothing, to put it bluntly. I think both Derniche and Angel Cepeda will enter my top 30, at least, once they come state side and I can get more information and video on them.
Appreciate you, Jeff!
A few things:
– When you consider workload, age, health, and obvy the velo itself…Gallardo proooobably throws harder than any of the starters in the org rn with more in the tank. I have him mostly 95-97 t99 last year from the broadcasts. It’s worth noting that velo was while leading the org in IP and was trending up at the time of injury
– What limits Wicks to a #4 ceiling? Now I wonder what ceiling or a #4 even is! Out of curiosity – Franklin’s upside is higher than a #4?
– The catches with what you’re saying about Alcantara: eliminating 3 weeks doesn’t really really change the line so much (both are abv the league average) and the universe won’t be in any rush to parse down the numbers of a player who only took 435 PAs last year anyway. I’m not like gungho about Caissie yet but is Alcantara’s defense and baserunning covering the offensive gap btw a guy 4 days older putting up a .289/.399/.519 OBP in the upper minors over 528 PAs?
– I just straight up do not understand the DSL stance. Weren’t the lists loaded with Rk ball players just a couple years ago? Why completely dismiss one Rk group but not another? I get having the opinion that DSL stats don’t have any meaning, , but it’s an opinion that has been wrong for at least a decade+ just in this org
Gallardo: Good point
Wicks: The pure stuff just isn’t what you see from a classic Scherzer/Verlander/Cole type. I’ve been beating the drum for Wicks for years, I think he’s incredible so you want find me arguing against a higher ranking of him to anyone who has him there.
Alcántara: My higher ranking of Alcántara doesn’t have to do with results but like I said before, those two are completely interchangeable in my mind.
DSL: I should have clarified my omission of DSL players isn’t a “stance” that they don’t deserve it. It’s the fact that I haven’t either seen live looks of them, looks on TV, or gotten enough feedback from people in the organization. It would be a completely blind ranking based on pure numbers and something I don’t feel comfortable doing. It’s essentially a guess.
I appreciate the responses! It’s been a leeeean offseason so far.
– There’s alooooooot of room between a Verlander/Cole and a BOR starter. He also has some of the more important traits that lend to the durability and ability to adjust that separates a Verlander/Cole from so many others: command, control, a healthy and well worked arm with a long track record of success. There’s no one really close to a Verlander/Cole unless Gallardo makes the leap really, even Horton is more AJ Burnett than Cole/Verlander
– There’s already information on Valdez beyond the numbers! This also isn’t consistent with Cristian Hernandez, an IFA who didn’t play at all but made all the top 10s. Pipeline gave him 55s for both hit and power and a 55 OFP when ranking him 6th in last year’s class. Their writeup:
“He’s best known as a prospect with tons of upside on the offensive side. Valdez projects to be a middle-of-the-order hitter and run producer if he continues to develop and mature physically at a normal pace. He already shows the ability to hit hard line drives to all fields and drive the ball out of the ballpark to all fields. He shows a solid approach at the plate and a feel for the strike zone.”
is reflected all over his DSL line featuring patience, game power, approach…IIRC he almost hit as many HRs as a 17 YO as a couple teams in the league.
Thanks for the time and passion! Have a good holiday, hopefully the Cubs actually do something maybe even trade a few of these prospects for a star talent