It is finally here. After a whole year of watching, waiting and projecting we finally get our answers tonight on day 1 of the draft
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Wyatt Langford – OF, Florida
Previous 1st round selections: Quinn Priester- RHP, Nick Gonzales- 2B, Henry Davis- C, Termarr Johnson- 2B
Bonus Slot: $9,721,000
How the Pirates draft: Pittsburgh has leaned towards safe future projections the past three seasons. Gonzales, Davis, and Johnson all look like solid bets to progress through the system and be MLB-performers. They’ve prioritized strong contact rates (hit tools). In 2021 they also had the number 1 overall pick and took the player that provided the best combination of talent and savings. While that’s not a guarantee they’ll do that in 2023, it’s worth considering.
Mock 3.0: Ultimately I do buy the chatter that Dylan Crews is asking for a $10+ million, especially from Pittsburgh. And I think the Pirates will go down to the wire negotiating with Paul Skenes, Wyatt Langford, and Max Clark.
- Washington Nationals – Dylan Crews – OF, LSU Previous 1st round selections: Jackson Rutledge- RHP, Cade Cavalli- RHP, Brady House- 3B, Elijah Green, OF
Bonus Slot: $8,998,500
How the Nationals draft: Not afraid to go for upside despite risk. Ultimate ceiling appears to drive decision-making.
Mock 3.0: The Nationals have an extensive history of working with superstars, especially those represented by agent Scott Boras. They know how to handle the unique challenges and to get the best out of those players despite the added cost. Boras also has a history of putting his clients in the best position to maximize long term potential. Washington offers this for Crews.
- Detroit Tigers – Paul Skenes – RHP, LSU
Previous 1st round selections: Riley Greene- OF, Spencer Torkelson- 1B, Jackson Jobe- RHP, Jace Jung- 2B
Bonus Slot: $8,341,700
How the Tigers draft: This is a bit of a copout because the Tigers have a new scouting director. Mark Conner was with the Padres for over a decade before Scott Harris brought him to Detroit. Let’s copy a snippet of what I list for the Padres below, “The Padres are a club that puts a premium on batted ball data…”. I could see that factoring in for Detroit’s draft selections. It’s big, loud tools and a college profile allowing for a higher floor.
Mock 3.0: Paul Skenes (no hyperbole here) has positioned himself as the best college arm since Stephen Strasburg. He’s received pro-level instruction from LSU pitching coach, Wes Johnson, formerly of the Twins and while I think he’s an ideal candidate to add a cutter, the rest of the repertoire is pro-ready. Not every team likes to risk a top selection on an arm, but the Nationals who made the investment in Strasburg over a decade ago would provide symmetry if they select Skenes. From Detroit’s perspectives, Skenes doesn’t need as much time developing. He’s not a finished product, but capable of moving quicker through the system than the high school players in this category.
- Texas Rangers – Max Clark – OF Franklin HS, IN
Previous 1st round selections: Josh Jung- 3B, Justin Foscue- 2B, Jack Leiter- RHP, Kumar Rocker- RHP
Bonus Slot: $7,698,000
How the Rangers draft: Target college performers and ones from large conferences (mostly SEC). Established performers.
Mock 3.0: Max Clark entered the year as my preseason 1.1 overall talent and 1.1 in Mock 1.0. His landing here at four might seem like a disappointment. It’s not. He’s been exactly the player I projected. Clark shows all five tools with now added loft to his swing incorporating in the power I discussed this winter. Clark is a future all-star centerfielder and Texas is a team that could have a hard time passing up the profile.
- Minnesota Twins – Jacob Gonzalez – SS, Ole Miss
Previous 1st round selections: Keoni Cavaco- SS, Aaron Sabato- 1B, Chase Petty- RHP, Brooks Lee- SS
Bonus Slot: $7,139,700
How the Twins draft: The Twins balance prep and college, but players fall into safer demographics. Chase Petty is the exception, but they traded him before the end of the year.
Mock 3.0: Gonzalez doesn’t receive as much fanfare as some of the college talent up top, but he’s a steady safe player who should be a first division starter in the infield. Similar to Brooks Lee last year, Gonzalez just does everything well. I go back and forth on whether Gonzalez is a future all-star (some feel he is), but seeing Jacob Gonzalez line up at 2B in Minnesota for 10 years feels absolutely reasonable. That may not sound exciting, but to many organizations it absolutely is. Gonzalez is a really excellent player.
- Oakland A’s – Brayden Taylor – 3B, TCU
Previous 1st round selections: Logan Davidson- SS, Tyler Soderstrom- C, Maxwell Muncy- SS, Daniel Susac- C
Bonus Slot: $6,634,000
How the A’s draft: Up the middle contributors. They’ve balanced between prep and college talents.
Mock 3.0:
- Cincinnati Reds – Walker Jenkins – OF, South Brunswick HS, NC
Previous 1st round selections: Nick Lodolo- LHP, Austin Hendrick- OF, Matt McLain- SS, Cam Collier- 3B
Bonus Slot: $6,275,200
How the Reds draft: It’s a mixed bag for Cincinnati, but they’ve been an organization that’s been willing to pay up for talents that fall.
Mock 3.0: When everyone seems to prefer to underslot, Cincinnati pays up for falling talents. With both Matt McClain and Cam Collier, the Reds front office prioritized a top talent over spreading money around. Walker Jenkins could go top 5, but concerns over a hip injury could drop him. Watch out for Cam Johnson with a later pick.
- Kansas City Royals – Dillon Head – OF, Homewood-Flossmore (HS), IL
Previous 1st round selections: Bobby Witt- SS, Asa Lacy- LHP, Frank Mozzicato- LHP, Gavin Cross – OF
Bonus Slot: $5,980,100
How the Royals draft: The Royals have used multiple strategies to bring in top selections. They’ve subslotted heavily (Mozzicato) and stuck to slot with Witt, Lacy, and Cross. The Royals also are one of the few teams to have all four major demographics (HS hitter, college hitter, prep pitcher, prep hitter) in their last four.
Mock 3.0: A major surprise here. Kansas City has surprised before taking Frank Mozzicoto and Dillon Head isn’t eligible for the 75% of slot value guarantee. I have heard KC likes him a lot. Is it enough for them to take Head at 60% of slot ($3.55 million), saving over $2.3 million off slot to use in the second round? I’m curious. For reference, I have them taking Blake Mitchell in the second round if he gets there for a well above slot bonus.
- Colorado Rockies – Kyle Teel – C, Virginia
Previous 1st round selections: Michael Toglia- 1B, Zac Veen- OF, Benny Montgomery- OF, Gabriel Hughes- RHP
Bonus Slot: $5,716,900
How the Rockies draft: It’s hard to track any sort of discernible traits the Rockies prioritize early. They’ve targeted multiple bats in the first and raw toosly outfielders.
Mock 3.0: A complete value play. Rhett Lowder makes sense here, but hard to turn down a player who offers significant upside at a demanding position.
Mock 2.0: Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Mock 1.0: Enrique Bradfield Jr.
- Miami Marlins – Noble Meyer- RHP Jesuit HS, OR
Previous 1st round selections: J.J. Bleday- OF, Max Meyer- RHP, Khalil Watson- SS, Jacob Berry- 3B
Bonus Slot: $5,475,300
How the Marlins draft: The Jacob Berry selection was definitely safe play and Watson was seen as a value move with him falling in the draft.
Mock 3.0: I almost went with Jacob Wilson again, but have heard that Noble Meyer is a Miami favorite. I’ll keep it at that.
- Anaheim Angels – Rhett Lowder – RHP, Wake Forest
Previous 1st round selections: Will Wilson- SS, Reid Detmers- LHP, Sam Bachman- RHP, Zach Neto- SS
Bonus Slot: $5,253,000
How the Angels draft: College performers and pitchers are the primary first-round targets by the Angels.
Mock 3.0: Rhett Lowder has a bit of Jordan Wicks in his profile where it’s a repertoire lead by a superb changeup, not overpowering but solid fastball, and a sneaky good slider. If Lowder was stacked up against last year’s draft class he would go much higher, but it’s a deeper group this season.
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Chase Dollander – RHP, Tennessee
Previous 1st round selections: Corbin Carroll- CF, Bryce Jarvis- RHP, Jordan Lawler- SS, Druw Jones- CF
How the Diamondbacks draft: Outside of 2020, we generally see the Diamondbacks target higher ceiling prep talent early.
Mock 3.0: The Diamondbacks could go several ways but it’s hard to imagine Chase Dollander fall too far. They’re linked to pitching and Dollander makes a tremendous amount of sense for Arizona.
- Chicago Cubs – Colt Emerson – SS, John Glenn HS, OH
Previous 1st round selections: Ryan Jensen- RHP (under Jason McLeod), Ed Howard- SS, Jordan Wicks- LHP, Cade Horton- RHP
Bonus Slot: $4,848,500
How the Cubs draft: we saw the Cubs prioritize players who the organization viewed as falling to them in Howard and Wicks, but unless something really crazy happened last year they were very into the profile of Horton. This is an organization that has been willing to target upside with their top few selections the past few years.
Mock 2.0: Emerson entered the season as a top ten overall prospect in my draft ranking and he’s made that ranking hold up. Emerson possesses one of the best hit tools in the high school class, which is a critical component into how evaluate hitters, especially prep players. I have been impressed with Emerson’s actions at shortstop and believe he plays the position at the next level. The real question from some is how much power does Emerson get to in the pros. But I don’t buy into that concern as he has shown he can get to power and he doesn’t turn 18 until after the MLB Draft. To me, Colt Emerson gives me Jake Cronenworth vibes. I’m very in on him.
There hasn’t been much buzz on Colt Emerson recently, but that feels intentional and he’d make sense for several teams in this range.
What if it wasn’t Colt Emerson, however? I evaluated several players for this pick and compared my projecting along with reaching out to folks around the game. There were a few more common names that I considered. They include (not in any specific order) Colin Houck, Arjun Nimmala, Blake Mitchell, Walker Martin, Tommy Troy, Hurston Waldrep, Nolan Schanuel, and Noble Meyer.
Hurston Waldrep and Chase Dollander in particular could be very fun picks if you believe in the development plans for each.
“The Cubs have prospects ready to debut in late 2023 and early 2024. Why aren’t they only looking at quick-moving college bats?”. I’m a firm believer in taking the best-player available and I’m sure the Cubs are too. There are college players in this mock that could make sense. Nolan Schanuel, Jacob Gonzalez (if he made it down here), or one of the college arms. But don’t force it.
Other names considered: Arjun Nimmala, Matt Shaw, Colin Houck, Nolan Schanuel, Noble Meyer, Hurston Waldrep, Chase Dollander
- Boston Red Sox – Matt Shaw – SS, Maryland
Previous 1st round selections: Nick Yorke- 2B, Marcelo Meyer- SS, Mikey Romero- SS
How the Red Sox draft: Athletic middle infielders has been a heavy focus. It’s a great demographic to pull from.
Mock 3.0: Shaw May not be viewed as an infielder by every organization, but he’s an excellent prospect regardless of his defensive home. Additionally a team like the Red Sox with MIF talent can afford to move Shaw around… Watch out for Grant Gray here if goes wild on underslot.
- Chicago White Sox – Enrique Bradfield Jr. – CF, Vanderbilt
Previous 1st round selections: Andrew Vaughn- 1B, Garrett Crochet- LHP, Colson Montgomery- SS, Noah Schultz- LHP
How the White Sox draft: White Sox have been willing to bet on upside despite risk. It’s paid off with Montgomery and Schultz is one of my favorite 2022 selections.
Mock 3.0: EBJ does everything you could want at the plate. This is tremendous value. It could be a quick rising player who may come at a tad of a discount in order for CWS to target prep pitching.
- San Francisco Giants – Nolan Schanuel – 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic University
Previous 1st round selections: Hunter Bishop- OF, Patrick Bailey- C, Will Bednar- RHP, Reggie Crawford- LHP
Bonus slot: $4,326,600
How the Giants draft: The Giants are hard to pin down so I reached out to one of my favorite draft analysts, Brian Recca, who writes for Prospects Live and is cued into the Giants. According to Brian, “[The Giants] definitely like low VAA arms and up the middle defenders in the 1st round”.
Mock 3.0: I still believe the Giants are in on prep shortstops so I may already be kicking myself for not going with Walker Martin. However Schanuel is just an excellent hitter and would present a value move here for SF, allowing them to target prep MIF with their next pick.
- Baltimore Orioles – Hurston Waldrep – RHP, Florida
Previous 1st round selections: Adley Rutschman- C, Heston Kjerstad- OF, Colton Cowser- OF, Jackson Holliday- SS
Bonus Slot: $4,169,700
How the Orioles draft: Upper-tier batted ball numbers and hitters early. They aren’t afraid of whiffs and are an organization that appears to improve swing and miss from hitters during development. This is an organization that shows a willingness to subslot players early especially if they can get a similar tier of player.
Mock 3.0: The Orioles don’t target pitching early but this may be a unique case of believing in the player and development plan for Waldrep.
- Milwaukee Brewers – Jacob Wilson – SS, Grand Canyon University
Previous 1st round selections: Ethan Small- LHP, Garrett Mitchell- OF, Sal Frelick- OF, Eric Brown Jr.- SS
Bonus Slot: $4,021,400
How the Brewers draft: The Brewers have put an emphasis on contact skills early. All of Mitchell, Frelick, and Brown Jr. boasted strong bat-to-ball skills. They’ve been the beneficiaries of players who have fallen in the first round several times.
Mock 3.0: this fits Milwaukee’s archetype well as someone who fell in the draft and has a premier contact ability.
- Tampa Bay Rays – Aidan Miller – 3B, JW Mitchell HS, FL
Previous 1st round selections: Greg Jones- SS, Nick Bitsko- RHP, Carson Williams- SS, Xavier Isaac- 1B
How the Rays draft: Can we say to the beat of their own drum? Bitsko, Williams. And Isaac were gambles that not every team was comfortable with (though Bitsko was a hot name in 2020). Look, you doubt the Rays at your own risk, but it’ll be fascinating to see what they do in 2023.
Mock 3.0: The only question about Aidan Miller is where does he ultimately line up defensively. We’ve seen Tampa Bay prioritize defensive home lower than other skills.
- Toronto Blue Jays – Yohandy Morales – 3B, Miami
Previous 1st round selections: Alek Manoah- RHP, Austin Martin- SS, Gunnar Hoglund- RHP, Brandon Barriera- LHP
How the Blue Jays draft: You have to respect the Blue Jays for just taking the guys that fall to them. They’ve been one of the few organizations willing to take an arm who had Tommy John surgery and didn’t come back yet.
Mock 3.0: This connection has been creeping up more and more recently along with players like Aidan Miller (gone in this mock). Morales showed impressive tools with power and defense. His remaining question is how well he’ll get to that power, but it’s still a first round profile. Watch out for Brock Wilken here as well.
- St. Louis Cardinals – Bryce Eldridge – RHP/1B, James Madison HS, VA
Previous 1st round selections: Zack Thompson- LHP, Jordan Walker- 3B, Michael McGreevy- RHP, Cooper Hjerpe- LHP
How the Cardinals draft: Not mentioned above, but the Cardinals have identified two-way players and developed them well. They aren’t afraid to take risky selections either. The Cardinals place a premium on height early in the draft. Every single pitcher drafted in the first five rounds in 2021 and 2022 were 6’2” or taller.
Mock 3.0: Cardinals are a team more willing to take a chance on two-way players. I’ve had Eldridge here since Mock 1.0 and I’ve liked the fit. Can’t shake it.
- Seattle Mariners – Arjun Nimmala – SS, Strawberry Crest HS, FL
Previous 1st round selections: George Kirby- RHP, Emerson Hancock- RHP, Harry Ford- C, Cole Young- SS
How the Mariners draft: The past few seasons, Seattle has focused on high school talent and with three selections in the top 30 the Mariners have a lot of juice to move money around in the draft. Seattle is in a unique position.
Mock 3.0: it’s nearly impossible to determine how Seattle will spend its three first round picks but Nimmala makes a lot of sense. Seattle has targeted young, upside preps and could conceivably buy Nimmala down to their first pick.
- Cleveland Guardians – Tommy Troy – SS, Stanford
Previous 1st round selections: Daniel Espino- RHP, Carson Tucker- SS, Gavin Williams- RHP, Chase DeLauter- OF
How the Guardians draft: “Cleveland is a model-driven club- they look for specific traits in hitting and pitching prospects. Age, athleticism, ‘famous’ (PG, Team USA, Cape Cod League, etc) game exposure, and cold weather/underdeveloped talent are traits that crossover both demographics. In hitters, the club targets middle-of-the-diamond talent with above-average or better speed, clean hitting mechanics, advanced contact skills, and advanced zone awareness. With pitchers, it is a similar approach: advanced pitch-ability; pitch sequencing, command, ease of delivery/clean mechanics, multiple pitches (more is better), high spin rates, above-average extension, and unique release points.”
–Willie Hood
Mock 3.0: Take players that fall to your team is a sound strategy and it’s one the Guardians have employed.
Mock 1.0: Kyle Teel – C, Virginia
- Atlanta Braves – Joe Whitman – LHP, Kent State
Previous 1st round selections: Shea Langeliers- C, Jared Shuster- LHP, Ryan Cusick- RHP, Owen Murphy- RHP
How the Braves draft: mix of college and prep and while they’ve leaned pitchers the last several years I’m not sure that’s an organizational preference.
Mock 3.0: Atlanta’s selection here would mirror their Jared shutter selection with a rising LHP from the college ranks.
- San Diego Padres –Sammy Stafura – SS, Walter Panas HS, NY
Previous 1st round selections: C.J. Abrams- SS, Robert Hassell- OF, Jackson Merrill- SS, (not a first rounder, but James Wood received a $3 million bonus), Dylan Lesko- RHP
How the Padres draft: The Padres are a club that puts a premium on batted ball data, prep upside, and are not afraid of late-rising players
- New York Yankees – Brock Wilken – 3B, Wake Forest
Previous 1st round selections: Anthony Volpe- SS, Austin Wells- C, Trey Sweeney- SS, Spencer Jones- OF
How the Yankees draft: When you evaluate Yankees picks they almost always feature positive batted ball or pitching metrics.
Mock 3.0: Great batted ball numbers and enormous value here with Wilken.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Chase Davis – OF, Arizona
Previous 1st round selections: Bryson Stott- SS, Mick Abel- RHP, Andrew Painter- RHP, Justin Crawford- CF
Bonus Slot: $2,968,800
How the Phillies draft: Recent seasons have seen the Phillies put a heavy focus on prep talent from risky demographics (prep pitchers and center fielders waiting on projection).
Mock 3.0: This connection has popped up more often in conversations in recent weeks. I doubt Philly has zeroed in on Davis but word is they like him a lot.
- Houston Astros – Raffaele Velazquez – C/OF, Huntington Beach HS, CA
Previous 1st round selections: Korey Lee- C, (No 1st round picks in 2020 and 2021 because of cheating scandal punishments), Drew Gilbert- CF
Bonus Slot: $2,880,700
How the Astros draft: The Astros have leaned very model-heavy with an emphasis on batted-ball and pitching metrics. It’s hard to know if they may lighten up on that with a regime change.
Mock 3.0: Ralphy can hit with the best of them and rumor has it Houston is very interested.
- Seattle Mariners – Juaron Watts-Brown – RHP, Oklahoma State
Bonus Slot: $2,800,700. Mock 3.0: This is pick two of three for Seattle in this mock and they can be aggressive in moving money around. “JWB” has looked strong of late though there are some questions about control. His BB-rate has increased in recent weeks. It’s something to monitor. Prior to that, he fit systems like Cleveland who identify pitchers who can control the ball and take them to the next level. Seattle has a track record of harnessing wild stuff (JWB doesn’t quite fit that model either).
Mock 2.0: Juaron Watts-Brown
Mock 1.0: Charlee Soto - Seattle Mariners – Charlee Soto – RHP, Reborn Christian HS, FL
Bonus Slot: $2,800,700
Mock 3.0: Young for the class with wicked stuff and concerns about control fits Seattle very well. They leverage risk by spreading out picks along different demographics and can target safer players later.
Mock 2.0: Grant Gray
Mock 1.0: Rhett Lowder
31. Rays – Ty Floyd – RHP, LSU
Mock 3.0: impressive hop on his fastball but is a blank canvas, perfect for Tampa Bay
32. Mets – George Lombard Jr -SS
Previous 1st round selections: Pete Crow-Armstrong – OF, Kumar Rocker – RHP (Did not sign), Kevin Parada -C, Jett Williams- SS
Bonus slot: $2,607,500
How the Mets draft: The Mets since Cohen took over have made big swings in the draft. The aggressive spending dropped their first draft selection this year and I’d expect that to continue in subsequent drafts.
Mock 3.0: Expect the Mets to go big upside here and multiple teams have first round grades on Lombard J
Mock 2.0: Thomas White
Mock 1.0: None
- Milwaukee Brewers – Trent Caraway – 3B, JSerra HS, CA
Bonus Slot: $2,543,800
Mock 3.0: rumor has it Caraway had a great workout in Milwaukee and they have a history of taking some of my favorite players in the class. - Minnesota Twins – Brice Matthews – IF, Nebraska
Bonus Slot: $2,481,400 - Miami Marlins – Colton Ledbetter – OF, Mississipipi State
Bonus Slot: $2,420,900 - Los Angeles Dodgers – Jonny Farmelo – OF, Westfield HS, VA
Bonus Slot: $2,362,700
Previous 1st round selections: JT Ginn – RHP (did not sign), Michael Busch – 2B, Kody Hoese – 3B, Bobby Miller RHP, Maddux Bruns – LHP
How the Dodgers draft: The Dodgers receive a huge benefit of the doubt for their drafting base don their track record for player development. Sometimes that means taking a player higher than expected. They will also take players where the power tool is the one lagging in their development and improve that.
Mock 3.0: Carmelo has tons of athletic traits but could benefit from some swing adjustments. This is right up LA’s alley.
- Tigers – Colin Houck – SS, Parkview HS, GA
Bonus Slot: $2,309,500
Mock 3.0: Detroit like Houck a lot and they have the second most funds available in the draft. I think they could buy Houck down with a large overslot. - Cincinnati Reds – Michael Carico – C, Davidson
Bonus Slot: $2,255,100
Mock 3.0: a money saving pick after dropping extra funds for Jenkins. Cincinnati picks shortly after this one as well and could splurge again with Came Johnson before punting the second round pick to save cash - Oakland Athletics – Cole Carrigg – C/IF/OF, SDSU
Bonus Slot: $2,202,500
WHERE IS THAT GUY?
Blake Mitchell would have an overslot deal lined up with Kansas City. A handful of prep arms like Thomas White could go in the first or also in one of the first 12 picks of the second round (Washington, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati). Adrian Santana and Kevin McGonigle show first-round caliber talents, but similar to players in this section, we’ll often see players settle into the second round with first-round bonuses. Last year we saw four players (Ferris, Misiorowski, Anthony, and Porter) picked after the Comp A round and still land a bonus of $2,250,000 or more. The 2021 draft saw six players do the same. So if you see a first-round caliber player not in this mock, it doesn’t mean they aren’t viewed that way. It likely means they’re viewed as an overslot player which is becoming increasingly common in baseball drafting strategy.
If you’re cued in to a team and want to tell me if I’m way off about a player or team/player pairing, let me know! Hit me up on Twitter . It’s how I keep growing and building my projections and scouting.
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